Zdenek Kaplan

The Middle Awash Basin (MAB) faces severe ecological degradation due to the rapid spread of the invasive Prosopis juliflora (P. juliflora), which threatens native vegetation. The study characterizes and predicts the spatiotemporal dynamics of rangelands affected by P. juliflora in the MAB. Using three Landsat images from ETM+ (2003) and OLI (2013 and 2023), we applied a supervised random forest (RF) classification technique processed on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. This classification was integrated into an intensity analysis to examine temporal transitions between land use and land cover (LULC) classes. The predictive modeling included 12 variables, including climatic, topographic, edaphic, phenological, hydrological, and anthropogenic factors, using Terrset 2020. Using multitemporal satellite remote sensing, machine learning (ML), and cellular automata markov chain (CA-MC) methods, LULC was mapped from 2003 to 2023, and future scenarios were predicted up to 2060. The P. juliflora coverage quadrupled from 2.16% in 2003 to 8.61% in 2023, while rangelands were decreased by more than 25%. Models predict that P. juliflora could occupy 22% of the land by 2060 and over 40% of rangeland areas as of 2003, expanding two to three times faster than the intensities of the LULC baseline changes, primarily targeting rangelands. Our analysis is based on a single business-as-usual scenario; however, it highlights the worrying invasion patterns. The study's limitations include the absence of multiple scenarios and climate model integration, which could offer further insights into future invasion dynamics. Nonetheless, our findings indicate that the MAB faces imminent widespread ecosystem transformation without prompt action, which will severely affect pastoral livelihoods and biodiversity conservation. Therefore, we advocate for a management strategy involving prevention, eradication, and restoration measures, underpinned by policy reforms and stakeholder cooperation.

The crop and crop wild relative (CWR) checklist of Lithuania was created containing 2630 taxa. The checklist comprises 1384 native taxa including archaeophytes and 1246 neophytes. In total, 699 taxa (26.6%) are defined for food and forage use. A list of 144 CWR priority species with 135 native species and archaeophytes and 9 naturalized species was generated. In total, 53 genera of food and forage species belonging to 15 families are represented by the priority CWR. Two approaches for CWR genetic reserve selection have been employed in this study: (1) CWR-targeted evaluation of preselected sites, including Natura 2000 sites, national protected areas, and other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs), such as ancient hillfort sites and ecological protection zones of water bodies; (2) analysis of large georeferenced plant databases. Forty-five potential genetic reserve sites have been selected by the first approach covering 83 species or 57.6% of the national CWR priority list. With the second approach, the in situ CWR National Inventory database has been created by combining data from the Database of EU habitat mapping in Lithuania (BIGIS), Herbarium Database of the Nature Research Centre (BILAS), Lithuanian Vegetation Database (EU-LT-001), and Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). Hotspot analysis of CWR species richness and number of observations suggested that higher CWR diversity is more likely to be found in protected areas. However, Shannon diversity and Shannon equitability indices showed that the areas outside of the protected areas are also suitable for CWR genetic reserve establishment.

Traits associated with successful biological invasions across environmental gradients or geographical distances may vary depending on processes such as founder effects, ecological sorting, or adaptation to local conditions. Consequently, drivers of success are not necessarily consistent throughout the invasive range. We evaluate how plant traits, reproductive success and climatic preferences vary in populations of a naturalized orchid on islands in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans. Populations of Arundina graminifolia (bamboo orchid) were located on Puerto Rico, Hawaiian Islands (Hawai’i, O’ahu, Kaua’i), and Mauritius. Vegetative and reproductive traits were measured, and male and female success were assessed. Populations were compared using multivariate approaches. Species distribution modeling was used to assess potential climatic preferences within and among islands. Floral morphology differed among islands but considerable overlap in trait distributions exists. Reproductive success significantly differed among islands and was linked to floral traits, local pollinator pools and perhaps variable levels of florivory. Hawaiian populations occupied the broadest climatic niche space and Mauritius the most restricted. The effectiveness of using present points from the native range to reveal climatic suitability on invaded islands varied among islands. Successful invasions across a broad geographical range can occur even when morphology, reproductive success and climatic conditions are variable. As expected, some aspects of this global invasion are similar, but others differ among islands underscoring the context dependency of biological invasions and the difficulty of overall predictions. Los rasgos asociados a las invasiones biológicas exitosas a través de gradientes ambientales o distancias geográficas pueden variar dependiendo de procesos tales como el efecto fundador, el sorteo ecológico, o las adaptaciones a las condiciones locales. Consecuentemente, los impulsores del éxito no son necesariamente consistentes a través de la distribución invadida. Nosotros evaluamos cómo los rasgos, el éxito reproductivo y las preferencias climáticas varían en poblaciones de una orquídea naturalizada en islas de los océanos Atlántico, Pacífico e Índico. Las poblaciones de Arundina graminifolia (orquídea bambú) estaban localizadas en Puerto Rico, las Islas Hawaianas (Hawai’i, O’ahu, Kaua’i) y en la Isla de Mauricio. Los rasgos vegetativos y reproductivos fueron medidos, y el éxito reproductivo masculino y femenino fue evaluado. Comparamos las poblaciones usando enfoques estadísticos multivariados. También usamos modelos de distribución de especies para evaluar las preferencias climáticas tanto dentro de las islas, así como entre ellas. La morfología floral difirió entre islas, pero existe un sobrelapamiento considerable en la distribución de rasgos. El éxito reproductivo fue significativamente diferente entre islas, y estuvo ligado a los rasgos florales, el conjunto de polinizadores locales y, quizá, a niveles variables de florivoría. Las poblaciones hawaianas ocuparon el nicho climático más amplio mientras que las mauricianas ocuparon el más restringido. La efectividad de usar puntos de presencia de la distribución nativa para revelar la adecuación climática de las islas invadidas varió entre islas. Encontramos que las invasiones exitosas a través de una distribución geográfica amplia pueden ocurrir a pesar de la variabilidad en morfología, éxito reproductivo y condiciones climáticas. Como era de esperarse, algunos aspectos de esta invasión global son similares, pero otros difieren entre islas, haciendo hincapié en la dependencia del contexto de las invasiones biológicas y la dificultad de hacer predicciones generalizadas. Les traits associés aux invasions biologiques sur des gradients environnementaux ou des distances géographiques peuvent varier en fonction de processus tels que les effets fondateurs, le tri écologique ou l'adaptation aux conditions locales. Par conséquent, les facteurs de réussite ne sont pas nécessairement cohérents dans l'ensemble de l'aire de répartition de l'invasion. Nous évaluons comment les caractéristiques des plantes, le succès de la reproduction et les préférences climatiques varient dans les populations d'une orchidée naturalisée sur des îles des océans Atlantique, Pacifique et Indien. Les populations d'Arundina graminifolia (orchidée bambou) ont été localisées à Porto Rico, dans les îles hawaïennes (Hawai'i, O'ahu, Kaua'i) et à l'île Maurice. Les traits végétatifs et reproductifs ont été mesurés, et le succès reproductifs des mâles et des femelles a été évalué. Les populations ont été comparées à l'aide d'approches multivariées. La modélisation de la distribution des espèces a été utilisée pour évaluer les préférences climatiques potentielles au sein des îles et entre elles. La morphologie florale diffère d'une île à l'autre, mais il existe un chevauchement considérable dans la répartition des caractéristiques. Le succès de la reproduction diffère significativement entre les îles et est lié aux caractéristiques florales, aux réservoirs locaux de pollinisateurs et peut-être à des niveaux variables de florivorie. Les populations hawaïennes ont occupé la niche climatique la plus large et les populations mauriciennes la plus restreinte. L'efficacité de l'utilisation de points de présences dans l'aire de répartition indigène pour révéler l'adéquation climatique des îles envahies varie d'une île à l'autre. Des invasions réussies sur une vaste aire de répartition géographique peuvent se produire même lorsque la morphologie, le succès de la reproduction et les conditions climatiques sont variables. Comme prévu, certains aspects de cette invasion mondiale sont similaires, mais d'autres diffèrent d'une île à l'autre, ce qui souligne l’importance du contexte des invasions biologiques et la difficulté des prédictions globales.

The Khanka Lowland forest-steppe is the most eastern outpost of the Eurasian steppe biome. It includes unique grassland plant communities with rare steppe species. These coenosis have changed under the influence of anthropogenic activity, especially during the last 100 years and included both typical steppe species and nemoral mesophytic species. To distinguish these ecological groups of plants the random forest method with three datasets of environmental variables was applied. Specifically, a model of classification with the most important bioindices to predict a mesophytic ecological group of plants with a sensitivity greater than 80% was constructed. The data demonstrated the presence of steppe species that arrived at different times in the Primorye Territory. Most of these species are associated with the Mongolian-Daurian relict steppe complex and habit in the Khanka Lowland. Other species occur only in mountains in Primorye Territory and do not persist in the Khanka Lowland. These findings emphasize the presence of relict steppe communities with a complex of true steppe species in the Khanka Lowland. Steppe communities exhibit features of anthropogenic influence definitely through the long land use period but are not anthropogenic in origin. The most steppe species are located at the eastern border of distribution in the Khanka Lowlands and are valuable in terms of conservation and sources of information about steppe species origin and the emergence of the steppe biome as a whole.

Spatial truncation in species distribution models (SDMs) might cause niche truncation and model transferability issues, particularly when extrapolating models to non‐analog environmental conditions. While broad calibration extents reduce truncation issues, they usually overlook local ecological factors driving species distributions at finer resolution. Spatially‐nested hierarchical SDMs (HSDMs) address truncation by merging (a) a global model calibrated with broadly extended, yet typically low‐resolution, basic, and imprecise data; and (b) a regional model calibrated with spatially restricted but more precise and reliable data. This study aimed to examine HSDMs' efficacy to overcome spatial truncation in national‐scale studies. We compared two hierarchical strategies (‘covariate', which uses the global model output as a covariate for the regional model, and ‘multiply', which calculates the geometric mean of the global and regional models) and a non‐hierarchical strategy. The three strategies were compared in terms of niche truncation, environmental extrapolation, model performance, species' predicted distributions and shifts, and trends in species richness. We examined the consistency of the results over two study areas (Spain and Switzerland), 108 tree species, and four future climate scenarios. Only the non‐hierarchical strategy was susceptible to niche truncation, and environmental extrapolation issues. Hierarchical strategies, particularly the ‘covariate' one, presented greater model accuracy than non‐hierarchical strategies. The non‐hierarchical strategy predicted the highest overall values and the lowest decreases over time in species distribution ranges and richness. Differences between strategies were more evident in Switzerland, which was more affected by niche truncation issues. Spain was more negatively affected by climate change and environmental extrapolation. The ‘covariate' strategy exhibited higher model performance than the ‘multiply' one. However, uncertainties regarding model temporal transferability advocate for adopting and further examining multiple hierarchical approaches. This research underscores the importance of adopting spatially‐nested hierarchical SDMs given the compromised reliability of non‐hierarchical approaches due to niche truncation and extrapolation issues.

Parasitic weeds in the genera Orobanche, Phelipanche (broomrapes) and Striga (witchweeds) have a devastating impact on food security across much of Africa, Asia and the Mediterranean Basin. Yet, how climatic factors might affect the range expansion of these weeds in the context of global environmental change remains unexplored. We examined satellite‐based environmental variables such as surface temperature, root zone soil moisture, and elevation, in relation to parasitic weed distribution and environmental conditions over time, in combination with observational data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). Our analysis reveals contrasting environmental and altitude preferences in the genera Striga and Orobanche. Asiatic witchweed (Striga asiatica), which infests corn, rice, sorghum, and sugar cane crops, appears to be expanding its range in high elevation habitats. It also shows a significant association with heat‐moisture coupling events, the frequency of which is rising in such environments. These results point to geographical shifts in distribution and abundance in parasitic weeds due to climate change.

Agguttinni Territorial Park is a large, newly established park on the east-central coast of Baffin Island in Nunavut, Canada. Previous knowledge of the plant and lichen biodiversity was limited and based mostly on collections made during the 1950 Baffin Island Expedition. We conducted a floristic inventory of the park in 2021 and re-examined previous collections. We recorded 141 species of vascular plants belonging to 25 families, 69 species of bryophytes in 27 families, and 93 species of lichens in 23 families. Most of the vascular plant and bryophyte species are new records for the park area, and some vascular plants, bryophytes, and lichens are newly reported for Baffin Island, Nunavut, or the Canadian Arctic or represent significant range extensions. Vascular plant species diversity varied greatly among localities, with inland valleys at the heads of fiords showing highest diversity and interior rocky barrens showing the lowest.

Since 1997 Tanzania has undertaken a process to identify and declare a network of Nature Forest Reserves (NFRs) with high biodiversity values, from within its existing portfolio of national Forest Reserves, with 16 new NFRs declared since 2015. The current network of 22 gazetted NFRs covered 948,871 hectares in 2023. NFRs now cover a range of Tanzanian habitat types, including all main forest types—wet, seasonal, and dry—as well as wetlands and grasslands. NFRs contain at least 178 of Tanzania’s 242 endemic vertebrate species, of which at least 50% are threatened with extinction, and 553 Tanzanian endemic plant taxa (species, subspecies, and varieties), of which at least 50% are threatened. NFRs also support 41 single-site endemic vertebrate species and 76 single-site endemic plant taxa. Time series analysis of management effectiveness tracking tool (METT) data shows that NFR management effectiveness is increasing, especially where donor funds have been available. Improved management and investment have resulted in measurable reductions of some critical threats in NFRs. Still, ongoing challenges remain to fully contain issues of illegal logging, charcoal production, firewood, pole-cutting, illegal hunting and snaring of birds and mammals, fire, wildlife trade, and the unpredictable impacts of climate change. Increased tourism, diversified revenue generation and investment schemes, involving communities in management, and stepping up control measures for remaining threats are all required to create a network of economically self-sustaining NFRs able to conserve critical biodiversity values.

The information on ecological niches of the Marula tree, Sclerocarya birrea (A. Rich.) Horchst. subspecies are needed for sustainable management of this tree, considering its nutritional, economic, and ecological benefits. However, despite Tanzania being regarded as a global genetic center of diversity of S. birrea, information on the subspecies ecological niches is lacking. We aimed to model ecological niches of S. birrea subspecies in Tanzania under the current and future climates. Ecological niches under the current climate were modelled by using ecological niche models in MaxEnt using climatic, edaphic, and topographical variables, and subspecies occurrence data. The Hadley Climate Center and National Center for Atmospheric Research's Earth System Models were used to predict ecological niches under the medium and high greenhouse gases emission scenarios for the years 2050 and 2080. Area under the curves (AUCs) were used to assess the accuracy of the models. The results show that the models were robust, with AUCs of 0.85–0.95. Annual and seasonal precipitation, elevation, and soil cation exchange capacity are the key environmental factors that define the ecological niches of the S. birrea subspecies. Ecological niches of subsp. caffra, multifoliata, and birrea are currently found in 30, 22, and 21 regions, and occupy 184 814 km2, 139 918 km2, and 28 446 km2 of Tanzania's land area respectively, which will contract by 0.4–44% due to climate change. Currently, 31–51% of ecological niches are under Tanzania’s protected areas network. The findings are important in guiding the development of conservation and domestication strategies for the S. birrea subspecies in Tanzania.

Global changes are responsible for the movement of species. While many research emphasize the spread of alien or invasive alien species, the rapid spread of rare, native species is poorly study. In our studies, we focused on Trapa natans, a species that is considered a strictly protected plant species in Europe, but is considered an alien invasive species in North America and Australia. The aim of the study was to analyze the historical and current occurrence of T. natans at the northern range of this species (Poland, Central Europe) and, based on future climate projections (wordClim), to determine its potential spread in Europe by modeling the occupation area of available habitats in Europe. We found a rapid spread of T. natans in Poland associated with increasing temperatures. Statistical analyzes showed that the mean temperature of the warmest quarter and precipitation of the driest month are the most important climatic variables determining habitat suitability for T. natans. The model for 2021–2040 showed an expansion of habitats suitable for the species to the north (Great Britain and Ireland, Scandinavia), to the east (Germany and Central Europe), to the northeast (Eastern Europe, e.g., Lithuania, Latvia), and to the south (Italy and Southern Europe). In the next two time periods (2041–––2060 and 2061–––2080), the models showed that the entire European area is suitable for colonization by the species, with the exception of the high mountain regions and Spain. T. natans is a representative species whose distribution and recent range changes allow us to track aquatic species feedbacks to climate change in the species’ home range and is a good ecological indicator of global warming. The message for conservationists is that the status of species classified as rare needs to be urgently reviewed.