Hans Sauter

Globally, vector‐borne diseases are increasing in distribution and frequency, affecting humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. Science‐based management and prevention of these diseases requires a sound understanding of the distribution and environmental requirements of the vectors and hosts involved in disease transmission. Integrated Species Distribution Models (ISDM) account for diverse data types through hierarchical modeling and represent a significant advancement in species distribution modeling. We assessed the distribution of the soft tick subspecies Ornithodoros turicata americanus. This tick species is a potential vector of African swine fever virus (ASFV), a pathogen responsible for an ongoing global epizootic that threatens agroindustry worldwide. Given the novelty of this method, we compared the results to a conventional Maxent SDM and validated the results through data partitioning. Our input for the model consisted of systematically collected detection data from 591 sampled field sites and 12 historical species records, as well as four variables describing climatic and soil characteristics. We found that a combination of climatic variables describing seasonality and temperature extremes, along with the amount of sand in the soil, determined the predicted intensity of occurrence of this tick species. When projected in geographic space, this distribution model predicted 62% of Florida as suitable habitat for this tick species. The ISDM presented a higher TSS and AUC than the Maxent conventional model, while sensitivity was similar between both models. Our case example shows the utility of ISDMs in disease ecology studies and highlights the broad range of geographic suitability for this important disease vector. These results provide important foundational information to inform future risk assessment work for tick‐borne relapsing fever surveillance and potential ASF introduction and maintenance in the United States.

Climate change has amplified the threat posed by aquatic invasive species as potential disruptors of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Species Distribution Models (MaxEnt) based on original data and ecological variables have identified contemporary seven global centers of the oriental rivel prawn Macrobrachium nipponense distribution: the native range in East Asia, Northern, Western and Eastern Europe, the Irano-Turanian region, and North and South America. By 2050, further expansion in Europe is expected, likely due to climate change, particularly temperature changes (Bio1) and rain precipitation during the warmest quarter (Bio18). However, the species may see a range reduction in southern Europe due to lower precipitation and increased droughts related to climate change. Therefore, a northward shift in the range of the species is also predicted. In the context of global change, and especially biological invasions, this study highlights the risks of introducing aquaculture based on M. nipponense and recommends controlling such economic activities, which are associated with a high risk for native species and ecosystems. Further, long-term monitoring is needed to assess impacts and to efficiently manage M. nipponense populations that are already present in their non-native habitats, for mitigating their negative effects on native species and ecosystems worldwide.

Marine habitats and ecosystems are increasingly being impacted by global climate change and the global spread of captive breeding. In this study, we focused on five typical Trachinotus species (Trachinotus anak, Trachinotus blochii, Trachinotus mookalee, Trachinotus goreenisi, Trachinotus ovatus) as research subjects. We utilized species distribution models and ecological niche models to predict the present and future potential distribution of these species, as well as to assess ecological niche overlap and evaluate the early warning of invasion by Trachinotus species. T. ovatus stands out with its broad distribution range and high adaptability to different environments. It occupies 1.114% of medium-high suitable areas, spanning 100,147 km2. Our predictions also suggest that T. ovatus would undergo a significant expansion (approximately 55% of the total area) under both past and future environmental scenarios, demonstrating a higher tolerance and adaptability to changes in ambient temperatures. It can be discerned that T. ovatus exhibits strong environmental adaptability, which may potentially lead to biological invasion along the southeastern coast of China. The T. anak, on the other hand, showed a higher expansion trend under high carbon dioxide concentrations (RCP8.5), indicating a certain convergence with carbon dioxide concentration. Our models showed that under future climatic conditions, T. ovatus would become the dominant species, with increased competition with T. mookalee and decreased competition with T. goreenisi, T. mookalee, and T. anak. Based on our findings and the net-pen culture mode of T. ovatus, we identified the hotspot habitat of T. ovatus to be located in the Indo-Pacific convergence zone. However, there is a possibility of an expansion trend towards the southeast coast of China in the future. Therefore, it is crucial to provide an early warning for the potential biological invasion of T. ovatus.

Freshwater turtles are often used as terrarium pets, especially juveniles of exotic species. At the adult stage they are often released by their owners into the wild despite their high invasion potential. In Europe these thermophilic potentially invasive alien species occupy the habitats of the native European pond turtle Emys orbicularis (Linnaeus, 1758), with new records from the wild being made specifically in Eastern Europe (Latvia and Ukraine) during recent decades. Assessing the potential of alien freshwater turtles to establish in new territories is of great concern for preventing invasion risks while preserving native biodiversity in the present context of climate change. We explored this issue by identifying the present and future (by 2050) suitable habitats of the European pond turtle and several potentially invasive alien species of freshwater turtle already settled in Europe, using a geographic information system (GIS) modelling approach based on datasets from CliMond for climate, Near-global environmental information (NGEI) for freshwater ecosystems (EarthEnv) and Maxent modelling using open-access databases, data from the literature and original field data. Modelling was performed for seven species of alien freshwater turtles occurring from the extreme northern to southern borders of the European range of E. orbicularis : the pond slider Trachemys scripta (Thunberg and Schoepff, 1792), the river cooter Pseudemys concinna (Le Conte, 1830), the Florida red-bellied cooter Pseudemys nelsoni (Carr, 1938), the false map turtle Graptemys pseudogeographica (Gray, 1831), the Chinese softshell turtle Pelodiscus sinensis (Wiegmann, 1835), the Caspian turtle Mauremys caspica (Gmelin, 1774) and the Balkan terrapin Mauremys rivulata (Valenciennes, 1833). In Ukraine, the most Eastern limit of E. orbicularis distribution, were previously reported northern American originated T. scripta , M. rivulata , M. caspica , whereas in Latvia, Emys’ most northern limit, were additionally reported P. concinna , P. nelsoni , G. pseudogeographica and Asia originated P. sinensis . The resulting Species Distribution Models (SDM) were of excellent performance (AUC > 0.8). Of these alien species, the most potentially successful in terms of range expansion throughout Europe were T. scripta (34.3% of potential range expansion), G. pseudogeographica (24.1%), and M. caspica (8.9%) and M. rivulata (4.3%) mainly in Eastern Europe, especially in the south of Ukraine (Odesa, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions, and Crimean Peninsula). Correlation between the built SDMs for the native E. orbicularis and the invasive alien T. scripta was reliably high, confirming the highly likely competition between these two species in places they cooccur. Moreover, a Multiple Regression Analysis revealed that by 2050, in most of Europe (from the western countries to Ukraine), the territory overlap between E. orbicularis and potentially invasive alien species of freshwater turtles will increase by 1.2 times, confirming higher competition in the future. Importantly, by 2050, Eastern Europe and Ukraine are predicted to be the areas with most suitable habitats for the European pond turtle yet with most limited overlap with the invasive alien species. We conclude that Eastern Europe and Ukraine are the most relevant priority conservation areas for the European pond turtle where it is now necessary to take protective measures to ensure safe habitat for this native species on the long-term.

Sarcophagid experts have made several efforts to associate biodiversity data and comprehend where each species occurs, but comprehensive faunal inventories remain scarce. Our aim was to provide a list of distributional patterns and endemic species and allow assessment of the sampling effort conducted within Brazilian biomes. We produced a dataset of Brazilian sarcophagids and overlaid with a biome map, to investigate distributional patterns, endemism and to build species accumulation curves. Additionally, we calculated nonparametric asymptotic species richness estimators and extrapolation of species diversity (Hill numbers). Our dataset comprised 288 sarcophagid species, which 21 were identified as endemic. The biomes with the highest species richness were the Atlantic Rainforest and the Amazon Forest, and no biome exhibited a stabilized asymptotic curve. This is the first proposal of listing Sarcophagidae species by biomes and essential to understand the spatial distribution of this family in Brazil. We present maps and richness estimators that allow identifying gaps and guiding survey planning.

Environmental niche models are useful tools for generating hypotheses for the distribution of species and informing conservation planning, especially at the edge of species’ ranges and for those with limited data. Here we report on the recent documentation of four species of amphibian (Hylarana latouchii, Odorrana tianmuii, Polypedates braueri, and Zhangixalus dennysi) and one reptile (Protobothrops mucrosquamatus) with few or no previous geolocated records from Jiangsu, China. We combined our opportunistic field sampling data from Jiangsu, which is at the edge of each of these species’ ranges, with publicly available occurrence records and climatic data to generate environmental niche models for these five species using Maxent. All models showed good model performance with AUC values ranging from 0.899 to 0.983. Additional potentially suitable areas within southern Jiangsu were predicted for the four amphibian species, although the significant anthropogenic habitat modifications in the province may limit their contemporary distributions. For all five species, the climatic variable that contributed most to the model was the precipitation of the driest month (Bio 14), indicating they are limited by moisture availability. Our study adds new information about the climatic preferences of these five species and highlights the value of complementing environmental niche modeling with field surveys for robust inferences and conservation planning, particularly at the edge of species’ ranges.

Background The recent discovery of emerging relapsing fever group Borrelia (RFGB) species, such as Borrelia miyamotoi, poses a growing threat to public health. However, the global distribution and associated risk burden of these species remain uncertain. We aimed to map the diversity, distribution, and potential infection risk of RFGB.MethodsWe searched PubMed, Web of Science, GenBank, CNKI, and eLibrary from Jan 1, 1874, to Dec 31, 2022, for published articles without language restriction to extract distribution data for RFGB detection in vectors, animals, and humans, and clinical information about human patients. Only articles documenting RFGB infection events were included in this study, and data for RFGB detection in vectors, animals, or humans were composed into a dataset. We used three machine learning algorithms (boosted regression trees, random forest, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression) to assess the environmental, ecoclimatic, biological, and socioeconomic factors associated with the occurrence of four major RFGB species: Borrelia miyamotoi, Borrelia lonestari, Borrelia crocidurae, and Borrelia hermsii; and mapped their worldwide risk level.FindingsWe retrieved 13 959 unique studies, among which 697 met the selection criteria and were used for data extraction. 29 RFGB species have been recorded worldwide, of which 27 have been identified from 63 tick species, 12 from 61 wild animals, and ten from domestic animals. 16 RFGB species caused human infection, with a cumulative count of 26 583 cases reported from Jan 1, 1874, to Dec 31, 2022. Borrelia recurrentis (17 084 cases) and Borrelia persica (2045 cases) accounted for the highest proportion of human infection. B miyamotoi showed the widest distribution among all RFGB, with a predicted environmentally suitable area of 6·92 million km2, followed by B lonestari (1·69 million km2), B crocidurae (1·67 million km2), and B hermsii (1·48 million km2). The habitat suitability index of vector ticks and climatic factors, such as the annual mean temperature, have the most significant effect among all predictive models for the geographical distribution of the four major RFGB species.InterpretationThe predicted high-risk regions are considerably larger than in previous reports. Identification, surveillance, and diagnosis of RFGB infections should be prioritised in high-risk areas, especially within low-income regions.FundingNational Key Research and Development Program of China.

Global warming has seriously disturbed the Earth’s ecosystems, and in this context, Asian honeybee (Apis cerana) has experienced a dramatic decline in recent decades. Here, we examined both direct and indirect effects of climate change on A. cerana through ecological niche modeling of A. cerana, and its disease pathogens (i.e., Chinese sacbrood virus and Melissococcus plutonius) and enemies (i.e., Galleria mellonella and Vespa mandarinia). Ecological niche modeling predicts that climate change will increase the potential suitability of A. cerana, but it will also cause some of the original habitat areas to become unsuitable. Outbreak risks of Chinese sacbrood disease and European Foulbrood will increase dramatically, while those of G. mellonella and V. mandarinia will decrease only slightly. Thus, climate change will produce an unfavorable situation for even maintaining some A. cerana populations in China in the future. Genetic structure analyses showed that the A. cerana population from Hainan Island had significant genetic differentiation from that of the mainland, and there was almost no gene flow between the 2, suggesting that urgent measures are needed to protect the unique genetic resources there. Through taking an integrated planning technique with the Marxan approach, we optimized conservation planning, and identified potential nature reserves (mainly in western Sichuan and southern Tibet) for conservation of A. cerana populations. Our results can provide insights into the potential impact of climate change on A. cerana, and will help to promote the conservation of the keystone honeybee in China and the long-term sustainability of its ecosystem services.

Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), the Mediterranean fruit fly or medfly, is one of the world's most serious threats to fresh fruits. It is highly polyphagous (recorded from over 300 hosts) and capable of adapting to a wide range of climates. This pest has spread to the EPPO region and is mainly present in the southern part, damaging Citrus and Prunus. In Northern and Central Europe records refer to interceptions or short‐lived adventive populations only. Sustainable programs for surveillance, spread assessment using models and control strategies for pests such as C. capitata represent a major plant health challenge for all countries in Europe. This article includes a review of pest distribution and monitoring techniques in 11 countries of the EPPO region. This work compiles information that was crucial for a better understanding of pest occurrence and contributes to identifying areas susceptible to potential invasion and establishment. The key outputs and results obtained in the Euphresco project included knowledge transfer about early detection tools and methods used in different countries for pest monitoring. A MaxEnt software model resulted in risk maps for C. capitata in different climatic regions. This is an important tool to help decision making and to develop actions against this pest in the different partner countries.

Past responses to environmental change provide vital baseline data for estimating the potential resilience of extant taxa to future change. Here, we investigate the latitudinal range contraction that terrestrial and freshwater turtles (Testudinata) experienced from the Late Cretaceous to the Paleogene (100.5–23.03 mya) in response to major climatic changes. We apply ecological niche modeling (ENM) to reconstruct turtle niches, using ancient and modern distribution data, paleogeographic reconstructions, and the HadCM3L climate model to quantify their range shifts in the Cretaceous and late Eocene. We then use the insights provided by these models to infer their probable ecological responses to future climate scenarios at different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for 2100), which project globally increased temperatures and spreading arid biomes at lower to mid-latitudes. We show that turtle ranges are predicted to expand poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, with decreased habitat suitability at lower latitudes, inverting a trend of latitudinal range contraction that has been prevalent since the Eocene. Trionychids and freshwater turtles can more easily track their niches than Testudinidae and other terrestrial groups. However, habitat destruction and fragmentation at higher latitudes will probably reduce the capability of turtles and tortoises to cope with future climate changes.