Edwin Cooper Van Dyke

Predicting global change effects poses significant challenges due to the intricate interplay between climate change and anthropogenic stressors in shaping ecological communities and their function, such as pest outbreak risk. Termites are ecosystem engineers, yet some pest species are causing worldwide economic losses. While habitat fragmentation seems to drive pest-dominated termite communities, its interaction with climate change effect remains unknown. We test whether climate and habitat fragmentation interactively alter interspecific competition that may limit pest termite risk. Leveraging global termite co-occurrence including 280 pest species, we found that competitively superior termite species (e.g., large bodied) increased in large and continuous habitats solely at high precipitation. While competitive species suppressed pest species globally, habitat fragmentation drove pest termite risk only in humid biomes. Unfortunately, hu- mid tropics have experienced vast forest fragmentation and rainfall reduction over the past decades. These stressors, if not stopped, may drive pest termite risk, potentially via competitive release.

AbstractBees (Hymenoptera: Apoidea) are vital components of global ecosystems, yet knowledge of their distribution is limited in many regions. Washington state is located in an ecologically diverse part of North America and encompasses habitat types and plant communities known for high bee species richness. To establish a baseline for future studies on bee communities in the state, we used published and unpublished datasets to develop a preliminary annotated checklist of bees occurring in Washington state. We document, with high confidence, 565 species of bees in Washington and identify an additional 102 species likely to occur in the state. We anticipate future research survey efforts, such as the newly initiated Washington Bee Atlas, will discover several species that have the potential to occur in Washington and provide new data for 84 species which have not been recorded in more than 50 years.

We assessed changes in fundamental climate‐niche space for lizard and snake species in western North America under modeled climate scenarios to inform natural resource managers of possible shifts in species distributions. We generated eight distribution models for each of 130 snake and lizard species in western North America under six time‐by‐climate scenarios. We combined the highest‐performing models per species into a single ensemble model for each scenario. Maps were generated from the ensemble models to depict climate‐niche space for each species and scenario. Patterns of species richness based on climate suitability and niche shifts were calculated from the projections at the scale of the entire study area and individual states and provinces, from Canada to Mexico. Squamate species' climate‐niche space for the recent‐time climate scenario and published known ranges were highly correlated (r = 0.81). Overall, reptile climate‐niche space was projected to move northward in the future. Sixty‐eight percent of species were projected to expand their current climate‐niche space rather than to shift, contract, or remain stable. Only 8.5% of species were projected to lose climate‐niche space in the future, and these species primarily occurred in Mexico and the southwestern U.S. We found few species were projected to lose all suitable climate‐niche space at the state or province level, although species were often predicted to occupy novel areas, such as at higher elevations. Most squamate species were projected to increase their climate‐niche space in future climate scenarios. As climate niches move northward, species are predicted to cross administrative borders, resulting in novel conservation issues for local landowners and natural resource agencies. However, information on species dispersal abilities, landscape connectivity, biophysical tolerances, and habitat suitability is needed to contextualize predictions relative to realized future niche expansions.

BACKGROUND Kissing bugs are the vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease (CD). Despite their epidemiological relevance, kissing bug species are under sampled in terms of their diversity and it is unclear what biases exist in available kissing bug data. Under climate change, range maps for kissing bugs may become less accurate as species shift their ranges to track climatic tolerance. OBJECTIVES Quantify inventory completeness in available kissing bug data. Assess how well range maps are at conveying information about current distributions and potential future distributions subject to shift under climate change. Intersect forecasted changes in kissing bug distributions with contemporary sampling gaps to identify regions for future sampling of the group. Identify whether a phylogenetic signal is present in expert range knowledge as more closely related species may be similarly well or lesser understood. METHODS We used species distribution models (SDM), specifically constructed from Bayesian additive regression trees, with Bioclim variables, to forecast kissing bug distributions into 2100 and intersect these with current sampling gaps to identify priority regions for sampling. Expert range maps were assessed by the agreement between the expert map and SDM generated occurrence probability. We used classical hypothesis testing methods as well as tests of phylogenetic signal to meet our objectives. FINDINGS Expert range maps vary in their quality of depicting current kissing bug distributions. Most expert range maps decline in their ability to convey information about kissing bug occurrence over time, especially in under sampled areas. We found limited evidence for a phylogenetic signal in expert range map performance. MAIN CONCLUSIONS Expert range maps are not a perfect account of species distributions and may degrade in their ability to accurately convey distribution knowledge under future climates. We identify regions where future sampling of kissing bugs will be crucial for completing biodiversity inventories.

In order to predict the global potential distribution range of Ixodes pacificus (I. pacificus) under different climate scenario models in the future, analyze the major climate factors affecting its distribution, and provide references for the transformation of passive vector surveillance into active vector surveillance, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used in this study to estimate the global potential distribution range of I. pacificus under historical climate scenarios and different future climate scenarios. The global distribution data of I. pacificus were screened by ENMtools and ArcGIS 10.8 software, and a total of 563 distribution data of I. pacificus were obtained. Maxent 3.4.1 and R 4.0.3 were used to screen climate variables according to the contribution rate of environmental variables, knife cutting method and correlation analysis of variables. R 4.0.3 was used to calculate model regulation frequency doubling and feature combination to adjust MaxEnt parameters. The model results showed that the training omission rate was in good agreement with the theoretical omission rate, and the area under ROC curve (AUC) value of the model was 0.978. Among the included environmental variables, the Tmin2 (minimum temperature in February) and Prec1 (precipitation in January) contributed the most to the model, providing more effective information for the distribution of I. pacificus. MaxEnt model revealed that the distribution range of I. pacificus was dynamically changing. The main potential suitable areas are distributed in North America, South America, Europe, Oceania and Asia. Under the future climate scenario model, the potential suitable areas show a downward trend, but the countries and regions ieeeeeeenvolved in the suitable areas do not change much. Therefore, the invasion risk of the potential suitable area of I. pacificus should be paid attention to.

The solitary oil-collecting bees of the tribes Centridini, Tapinotaspidini, and Tetrapediini inhabit areas from the southern part of the Nearctic Region through the Patagonian in southern South America, including the Caribbean. These bees are morphologically and behaviorally specialized in collecting oils as a reward from specialized floral glandular structures present in oil-producer plants. Oil-producer plants and oil-collecting bees have a mutualistic relationship in which the latter potentially pollinate the formers while collecting oils from their flowers. The main objective of this work is to infer the species richness and the key areas for conservation, research, and sustainable use of oil-collecting bees of the tribes Centridini, Tapinotaspidini, and Tetrapediini in the Americas. We collected occurrence records for 528 species of oil-collecting bees and estimated the species richness for each tribe and genus. In total, we estimated 664 species across the three mentioned tribes. With that baseline information, we created models of the richness and rarity patterns of the entire group of species and each tribe as a criterion to highlight key areas, along with richness and rarity centers for the American oil-collecting bees. We identified several critical areas that can be prioritized for conservation and research projects, including territories in Panama, Costa Rica, the Central and Northern Andes, the Amazon basin, and the biogeographic provinces of Cerrado, Atlantic Forest, Pampean, and Chacoan. Here we provide crucial information on key diversity areas for oil-collecting bees across the Americas. This information can be used for the conservation, research, and sustainable use of this important group of insect pollinators.

We analysed the wild bee community sampled from 1921 to 2018 at a nature preserve in southern Michigan, USA, to study long-term community shifts in a protected area. During an intensive survey in 1972 and 1973, Francis C. Evans detected 135 bee species. In the most recent intensive surveys conducted in 2017 and 2018, we recorded 90 species. Only 58 species were recorded in both sampling periods, indicating a significant shift in the bee community. We found that the bee community diversity, species richness and evenness were all lower in recent samples. Additionally, 64% of the more common species exhibited a more than 30% decline in relative abundance. Neural network analysis of species traits revealed that extirpation from the reserve was most likely for oligolectic ground-nesting bees and kleptoparasitic bees, whereas polylectic cavity-nesting bees were more likely to persist. Having longer phenological ranges also increased the chance of persistence in polylectic species. Further analysis suggests a climate response as bees in the contemporary sampling period had a more southerly overall distribution compared to the historic community. Results exhibit the utility of both long-term data and machine learning in disentangling complex indicators of bee population trajectories.

Ecological theory predicts that species that can utilise a greater diversity of resources and, therefore, have wider niche breadths should also occupy larger geographic areas (the ‘niche breadth-range size hypothesis’). Here, we tested this hypothesis for a blood-sucking group of insects of medical significance: the Triatominae (aka ‘kissing bugs’) (Hemiptera: Reduviidae). Given that niches can be viewed from different perspectives, we tested this hypothesis based on both dietary and climatic niches. We assembled the most complete dataset of triatomine feeding patterns to date by reviewing 143 studies from the literature up to 2021 and tested whether the niche breadth-range size hypothesis held for this group for both dietary and climatic components of the niche. Temperature and precipitation niche breadths were estimated from macro-environmental variables, while diet breadth was calculated based on literature data that used PCR and/or ELISA to identify different types of hosts as blood sources per triatomine species. Our results showed that temperature and precipitation niche breadths, but not dietary breadth, were positively correlated with range sizes, independent of evolutionary history among species. These findings support the predictions from the range size-niche breadth hypothesis concerning climate but not diet, in Triatominae. It also shows that support for the niche breadth-range size hypothesis is dependent upon the niche axis under consideration, which can explain the mixed support for this hypothesis in the ecological literature.

Ecological niche differentiation is a process that accompanies lineage diversification and community assembly. Traditionally, the degree of niche differentiation is estimated by contrasting niche hypervolumes of two taxa, reconstructed using ecologically relevant variables. These methods disregard the fact that niches can shift in different ways and directions. Without means of discriminating between different types of niche differentiation, important evolutionary and ecological patterns may go unrecognized. Herein, we introduce a new conceptual and methodological framework that allows quantification and classification of niche differentiation and divergence between taxa along single niche axis. This new method, the Niche Divergence Plane, is based on species' responses to an underlying environmental gradient, from which we derive a two‐dimensional plane defined by two indices, niche exclusivity and niche dissimilarity. These two indices identify the proportion of the environmental gradient that is unique to each species, that is, how much of the environmental gradient species do not share (niche breadth exclusivity) and how different the species' responses are along the environmental gradient (niche dissimilarity). Thus, the latter can also be seen as a measure of the differences in niche preference or importance, even when there is significant overlap in niche breadth (i.e., low niche exclusivity). Based on the position of the two indices on the divergence plane, we can distinguish niche conservatism from four other general types of niche divergence: hard, soft, weighted, and nested. We demonstrate that the Niche Divergence Plane complements traditional measures of niche similarity (e.g., Schoener's D or Hellinger's I). Additionally, we show an empirical comparison using the Niche Divergence Plane framework on two Ambystoma salamanders. Overall, we demonstrate that the Niche Divergence Plane is a versatile tool that can be used to complement and expand previous methods of ecological niche comparisons and the study of ecological niche divergence.

Species’ range size is a fundamental unit of analysis in biodiversity research, given its association with extinction risk and species richness. One of its most notable patterns is its positive relationship with latitude, which has been considered an ecogeographical rule called Rapoport’s rule. Despite this rule being confirmed for various taxonomic groups, its validity has been widely discussed and several taxa still lack a formal assessment. Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain their potential mechanisms, with those related to temperature and elevational being the most supported thus far. In this study, we employed two level of analyses (cross-species and assemblage) to investigate the validity of Rapoport’s rule in spiny lizards (genus Sceloporus). Additionally, we evaluated four environmental-related hypotheses (minimum temperature, temperature variability, temperature stability since the last glacial maximum, and elevation) posed to explain such pattern, contrasting our results to those patterns expected under a null model of range position. Our results provided support for Rapoport’s rule at both levels of analyses, contrasting with null expectations. Consistently, minimum temperature and elevation were the most relevant variables explaining the spatial variation in range size. At the cross-species level, our null simulations revealed that both variables deviated significantly from random expectations. Conversely, at the assemblage level, none of the variables were statistically different from the expected relationships. We discussed the implication of our findings in relation to the ecology and evolution of spiny lizards.