Ciencia habilitada por datos de especímenes

Zhao, Y., G. A. O’Neill, N. C. Coops, and T. Wang. 2024. Predicting the site productivity of forest tree species using climate niche models. Forest Ecology and Management 562: 121936.

Species occurrence-based climate niche models (CNMs) serve as valuable tools for predicting the future ranges of species’ suitable habitats, aiding the development of climate change adaptation strategies. However, these models do not address an essential aspect - productivity, which holds economic significance for timber production and ecological importance for carbon sequestration and ecosystem services. In this study, we investigated the potential to extend the CNMs to predict species productivity under various climate conditions. Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii Franco.) were selected as our model species due to their comprehensive range-wide occurrence data and measurement of site productivity. To achieve this, we compared and optimized the performance of four individual modeling algorithms (Random Forest (RF), Maxent, Generalized Boosted Models (GBM), and Generalized Additive Model (GAM)) in reflecting site productivity by evaluating the effect of spatial filtering, and the ratio of presence to absence (p/a ratio) observations. Additionally, we applied a binning process to capture the overarching trend of climatic effects while minimizing the impact of other factors. We observed consistency in optimal performance across both species when using the unfiltered data and a 1:1.5 p/a ratio, which could potentially be extended to other species. Among the modeling algorithms explored, we selected the ensemble model combining RF and Maxent as the final model to predict the range-wide site productivity for both species. The predicted range-wide site productivity was validated with an independent dataset for each species and yielded promising results (R2 above 0.7), affirming our model’s credibility. Our model introduced an innovative approach for predicting species productivity with high accuracy using only species occurrence data, and significantly advanced the application of CNMs. It provided crucial tools and insights for evaluating climate change's impact on productivity and holds a better potential for informed forest management and conservation decisions.

Ortíz-Martínez, A., C. P. Ornelas-García, D. A. Moo-Llanes, D. Piñero, J. A. Pérez de la Rosa, P. Peláez, and A. Moreno-Letelier. 2024. Species delimitation using multiple sources of evidence from the Pinus strobiformis-Pinus ayacahuite Species Complex. Botanical Sciences 102: 482–498.

Background: The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) in central Mexico is characterized by peaks of high altitude and geologic instability. In this zone, Pinus strobiformis and Pinus ayacahuite form a contact zone with Pinus veitchii. The taxonomical circumscription of white pines in Central Mexico has been unstable, especially regarding the status of P. veitchii. Questions: What are the species boundaries of the montane Mexican white pines species complex? Is Pinus veitchii a hybrid or an independently evolving lineage? Studied species: Pinus strobiformis, Pinus veitchii and Pinus ayacahuite species complex. Study site and dates: United States of America and Mexico from 2003 to 2022. Methods: We performed multivariate analyses on 10 morphological characters and characterized the climatic niche divergence and the genetic differentiation using SNPs. Results: Our results showed that P. veitchii is morphologically similar to P. strobiformis, but does not have intermediate morphological values with P. ayacahuite. The ecological niche differentiation was not significant.  Genetic analyses showed P. veitchii as an independent lineage with evidence of admixture with P. ayacahuite, suggesting a gene flow but not a hybrid origin. Conclusions: Two of the three lines of evidence support three independent lineages. Environmental information showed niche conservatism, morphology and genetic structure showed differentiation of all three taxa, with a greater morphological similarity between P. strobiformis and P. veitchii, and genetic analyses recovered evidence of introgression, suggesting a complex demographic history in the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt.

Jiménez-López, D. A., M. J. Carmona-Higuita, G. Mendieta-Leiva, R. Martínez-Camilo, A. Espejo-Serna, T. Krömer, N. Martínez-Meléndez, and N. Ramírez-Marcial. 2023. Linking different resources to recognize vascular epiphyte richness and distribution in a mountain system in southeastern Mexico. Flora: 152261.

Mesoamerican mountains are important centers of endemism and diversity of epiphytes. The Sierra Madre of Chiapas in southeastern Mexico is a mountainous region of great ecological interest due to its high biological richness. We present the first checklist of epiphytes for this region based on a compilation of various information sources. In addition, we determined the conservation status for each species based on the Mexican Official Standard (NOM-059-SEMARNAT-2010), endemism based on geopolitical boundaries, spatial completeness with inventory completeness index, richness distribution with range maps, and the relationship between climatic variables (temperature and rainfall) with species richness using generalized additive models. Our dataset includes 9,799 records collected between 1896-2017. Our checklist includes 708 epiphytes within 160 genera and 26 families; the most species-rich family was Orchidaceae (355 species), followed by Bromeliaceae (82) and Polypodiaceae (79). There were 74 species within a category of risk and 59 species considered endemic. Completeness of epiphyte richness suggests that sampling is still largely incomplete, particularly in the lower parts of the mountain system. Species and family range maps show the highest richness at high elevations, while geographically richness increases towards the southeast. Epiphyte richness increases with increased rainfall, although a unimodal pattern was observed along the temperature gradient with a species richness peak between 16-20 C°. The Sierra Madre of Chiapas forms a refuge to more than 40% of all epiphytes reported for Mexico and its existing network of protected areas overlaps with the greatest epiphyte richness.

Zhao, Y., G. A. O’Neill, and T. Wang. 2023. Predicting fundamental climate niches of forest trees based on species occurrence data. Ecological Indicators 148: 110072.

Species climate niche models (CNMs) have been widely used for assessing climate change impact, developing conservation strategies and guiding assisted migration for adaptation to future climates. However, the CNMs built based on species occurrence data only reflect the species’ realized niche, which can overestimate the potential loss of suitable habitat of existing forests and underestimate the potential of assisted migration to mitigate climate change. In this study, we explored building a fundamental climate niche model using widely available species occurrence data with two important forest tree species, lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii Franco.), which were introduced to many countries worldwide. We first compared and optimized three individual modeling techniques and their ensemble by adjusting the ratio of presence to absence (p/a) observations using an innovative approach to predict the realized climate niche of the two species. We then extended the realized climate niches to their fundamental niches by determining a new cut-off threshold based on species occurrence data beyond the native distributions. We found that the ensemble model comprising Random Forest and Maxent had the best performance and identified a common cut-off threshold of 0.3 for predicting the fundamental climate niches of the two species, which is likely applicable to other species. We then predicted the fundamental climate niches of the two species under current and future climate conditions. Our study demonstrated a novel approach for predicting species’ fundamental climate niche with high accuracy using only species occurrence data, including both presence and absence data points. It provided a new tool for assessing climate change impact on the future loss of existing forests and implementing assisted migration for better adapting to future climates.

Martínez-Sifuentes, A. R., J. A. Hernández-Herrera, L. M. Valenzuela-Núñez, E. A. Briceño-Contreras, U. Manzanilla-Quiñones, A. Gastélum-Arellánez, R. Trucíos-Caciano, and M. J. López Calderón. 2022. Climate Change Impact on the Habitat Suitability of Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb. Franco in Mexico: An Approach for Its Conservation. Sustainability 14: 8888.

One of the conifers that survived after the last glaciation is the Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco. Due to the gradual increase in temperature, this species was forced to move from the south to the north and to higher elevation, causing a fragmented and intermittent distribution in Mexico. The main objective of this study was to model and identify suitable areas for the future conservation of the P. menziesii in Mexico. The specific objectives of this research were: (i) to model the habitat suitability of P. menziesii in Mexico, (ii) to identify the most relevant environmental variables based on its current and future habitat suitability (2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090) and (iii) to suggest areas for the conservation of the species in Mexico. Records were compiled from different national and international sources. Climate and topographic variables were used. With MaxEnt software version 3.4.3 (Phillips, New York, NY, USA) 100 distribution models were obtained, where the model showed an area under the curve of 0.905 for training and 0.906 for validation and partial ROC of 1.95 and Z reliable (p < 0.01), with TSS values > 0.80. The current area of the P. menziesii was 31,580.65 km2. The most important variables in the current and future distribution were maximum temperature of the hottest month, precipitation of the coldest trimester and average temperature of the coldest trimester. The percentage of permanence (resilience) for the 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090 climate horizons was 49.79%, 25.14%, 17.45% and 16.46%, respectively, for the SSP 245 scenario. On the other hand, for the SSP 585 scenario and the analyzed horizons, the percentage resilience in areas of suitable habitat zones was 41.45%, 27.42%, 9.82% and 2.89%.

Torres-Delgado, M. G., F. G. Véliz-Deras, F. J. Sánchez-Ramos, E. Ruíz-Cancino, A. R. Martínez-Sifuentes, U. Nava-Camberos, V. Ávila-Rodríguez, and A. I. Ortega-Morales. 2022. Modelado Espacial Actual y Futuro de la Idoneidad de Hábitat de Triatoma nitida Usinger1 en Latinoamérica. Southwestern Entomologist 47.

Triatoma nitida Usinger es vector del parásito Trypanosoma cruzi (Chagas) causante de la enfermedad de Chagas, con alta capacidad de adaptación a zonas con diferencias geográficas y climáticas, lo que podría llegar a afectar a la población humana. Considerando la problemática actual de las enfermedades reemergentes el presente estudio se realizó con los objetivos de delimitar la distribución actual de T. nitida en Latinoamérica, identificar las variables ambientales de mayor influencia sobre la distribución de la especie para el clima futuro (2041-2060 y 2081-2100) bajo los escenarios SSP1-2.6 y SSP5-8.5 (GtCO2) e identificar las nuevas zonas con alta idoneidad de hábitat. Se generó una base de datos con 55 registros geográficos. Se descargaron 19 variables bioclimáticas del periodo actual con resolución de 2.5 arc-min. Para la proyección del clima futuro se consideró el modelo de Beijing Climate Center-Climate System Model para los años 2041-2060 y 2081-2100 bajo los escenarios SSP1-2.6 y SSP5-8.5. La superficie estimada para Latinoamérica fue de 2,089,284 km2, abarcando 17 países y 13 estados de México con zonas potenciales para la presencia de la especie. La superficie estimada para los climas futuros fue de 205,515 km2 para 2041-2060 y de 857 km2 para 2081-2100, siendo la mayor distribución en los estados de Oaxaca y Chiapas en México y los países centro y sudamericanos Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Venezuela, y Brasil. Se puede señalar que bajo este modelo la tendencia de disminución del área de distribución de T. nitida representa un menor riesgo epidemiológico para la población humana. Aunque la tendencia de los resultados muestran dicha disminución, se encontraron nuevas zonas geográficas de invasión las cuales poseen características climáticas ideales para el establecimiento del vector, lo que podría contribuir a su adaptación, incrementar su capacidad vectorial, así como ampliar la distribución de la enfermedad de Chagas a nuevas zonas de Latinoamérica, por lo anterior es importante considerar las áreas con alta idoneidad de hábitat.

Eduardo Sáenz-Ceja, J., M. Arenas-Navarro, and A. Torres-Miranda. 2022. Prioritizing conservation areas and vulnerability analyses of the genus Pinus L. (Pinaceae) in Mexico. Journal for Nature Conservation 67: 126171.

Mexico hosts the highest species richness of pines (Pinus, Pinaceae) worldwide; however, the priority areas for their conservation in the country are unknown. In this study, the ecological niche of the 50 native pine species was modeled. Then, through a multi-criteria analysis, the priority areas for the conservation of the genus Pinus were identified according to the spatial patterns of richness, geographic rareness, irreplaceability, the level of vulnerability of their habitat and the status of legal protection. The results revealed that the regions with high species richness differed from those with high endemism. Also, most pine species have undergone processes of habitat degradation, having been the endemic species the most affected. The priority areas covered regions with high species richness, high endemism, and highly degraded forests, located at mountainous portions of the Baja California Peninsula, the Sierra Madre Occidental, the Sierra Madre Oriental, the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, and the Sierra Madre del Sur. A low proportion of priority areas overlapped with protected areas or terrestrial regions considered priorities for biological conservation. These results suggest that conservation efforts for this genus should be focused beyond regions with high species richness and current protected areas. Besides, the priority areas identified in this study can be the basis to create biological corridors and new protected areas, which could contribute significantly to the conservation of this genus in Mexico.

Grebennikov, K. 2021. Ecological niche modeling to assessment of potential distribution of Neodiprion abietis (Harris, 1841) (Insecta, Hymenoptera, Diprionidae) in Eurasia. International Journal of Agricultural Sciences and Technology 1: 1–7.

In the article first assesses the potential distribution in Eurasia of Neodiprion abietis (Harris, 1841) first time assessed. The species id a widely distributed in North America fir and spruce defoliator, intercepted in 2016 in the Netherlands. Analysis of the literature data on the known distribut…

Baumbach, L., D. L. Warren, R. Yousefpour, and M. Hanewinkel. 2021. Climate change may induce connectivity loss and mountaintop extinction in Central American forests. Communications Biology 4.

The tropical forests of Central America serve a pivotal role as biodiversity hotspots and provide ecosystem services securing human livelihood. However, climate change is expected to affect the species composition of forest ecosystems, lead to forest type transitions and trigger irrecoverable losses…

Jin, W.-T., D. S. Gernandt, C. Wehenkel, X.-M. Xia, X.-X. Wei, and X.-Q. Wang. 2021. Phylogenomic and ecological analyses reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of global pines. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118.

How coniferous forests evolved in the Northern Hemisphere remains largely unknown. Unlike most groups of organisms that generally follow a latitudinal diversity gradient, most conifer species in the Northern Hemisphere are distributed in mountainous areas at middle latitudes. It is of great interest…